Back in the height of the summer, writing for the Stroud Times, I suggested Forest Green were “shifting from stability to opportunity” when they parted ways with Steve Cotterill. It felt like the kind of moment that could tilt a club’s destiny either way.
I’ve held off writing this piece for months – waiting for enough evidence, enough football, enough truth – to understand what this new FGR actually is, and how it compares to the version we lived through a year ago.
It was a bold break at the time. A club stabilizing from turbulence, choosing not to cling to safety, but to chase evolution. And that shift snapped into focus the moment owner Dale Vince made a series of key decisions, firstly, by opting to bring in sporting director Mark Bowen.
Dale proceeded to make a further key decision later in the summer, in moving for a new manager in Robbie Savage, with a mandate that went far beyond continuing to steady the ship.
The club wanted a side that was dynamic, aggressive, relentless – a brand of football that would no longer merely react to the league, but look to shape it.
The league table is what the majority would use to gauge the success of a side. Fair enough, it’s the great emotional switchboard of football, flicking us between joy and despair on a weekly basis and ultimately deciding whether a season gets framed as success or failure.
At Zone FGR, we look at things through two lenses: a supporter’s lens – the lived, visceral chaos of matchday – and an analytical one grounded firmly in data.
I reckon I can sum up the supporter’s lens in under 50 words… the data lens, however, may require its own postcode.
Let’s give it a go.
We are audacious, a team that play with joy, swagger and a mild contempt for footballing convention. On Saturday, we finished the game with one recognised defender, and even he prefers life as a winger.
It’s combative, creative, and compulsively watchable. Compared to last season’s slog of frustration and disenchantment, this campaign has been ten times more enjoyable. It feels like supporting a club that finally remembered how to smile.
67 words. Not bad.
Forest Green Rovers spent last season living on the edge. The performances were spirited enough to hint at progress, yet fragile enough that every setback felt like a reminder of how far the club still had to climb. The underlying metrics told the same story: flashes of quality buried inside inconsistency.
Fast forward to 2025–26, and the data no longer whispers improvement – it shouts it. FGR haven’t just taken a step forward; they’ve taken a stride. The transformation under Robbie Savage is real, measurable, and backed the clearest indicators of performance in modern football.
The Data
2024-25
If you strip away results and look purely at chance creation and chance suppression, you get the truth of a team’s performance & likely future performances. And in opening 22 games last season, that truth was simple:
- FGR xG: 26.62
- Opponents’ xG: 21.34
- xG Differential : +5.28 total | +0.24 per match
This was a side fighting its way through matches but rarely controlling them. Some games spiked – 2.28 xG vs one opponent, 2.45 in another – but the dips were equally sharp. A 0.32 xG outing here, a 0.42 there. A team searching for rhythm, but afraid to be unleashed?
Competitive? Yes
Convincing? No
2025-26
Now compare that to 2025–26 – a season that already feels stamped with authority.
- FGR xG: 45.13
- Opponents’ xG: 18.81
- xG Differential: +26.32 total | +1.20 per match
That shift is monumental. This isn’t natural variance or a lucky streak – it’s structural superiority.
FGR’s Attack Has Become a Force
Look at the attacking data alone and the change becomes obvious.
In 2024–25, FGR often struggled to break the 1.0 xG mark in the opening 22 games. Twelve matches came in under that threshold. This season? It’s the opposite story. There are explosions everywhere:
- 3.06 xG
- 3.08 xG
- 4.45 xG
- 4.89 xG
These aren’t outliers – they’re evidence of a team that creates high-value chances, repeatedly, not occasionally. The frontline is getting shots in better areas, with more runners, more final third entries, and more central touches inside the box.
This is the hallmark of a well coached, patterned attack.
The Defence Has Quietly Become Elite
While the attack takes the headlines, the defensive numbers tell the more profound story.
Whilst it’s true, the 2024–25 season saw some fairly consistent defensive performances, there were several outliers in the opening half of the season – with 1.92, 1.55, 1.69, 1.81 xG conceded in various matches.
But in 2025–26?
- 13/22 matches under 1.0 xG conceded
- Five matches under 0.40 xG conceded
- Only a few defensive wobbles across the entire sample
This is the clearest indicator of the structural changes, which are growing embedded.
Lines are tighter. Pressing triggers are clearer & the distances are shorter.
At times, opponents aren’t just being beaten – They’re being comprehensively outplayed.
xG Differential: The Metric of Contenders
If you want a single number that predicts league success, for me, it’s xG differential. Historically, teams with an xGD above +1.00 per game challenge for automatic promotion.
Forest Green Rovers this season: +1.20 per match
Forest Green Rovers last season: +0.24 per match
That’s the difference between: “We might win today” and “We expect to win today.”
This shift is so large it’s almost hard to overstate. The 2025–26 side profiles like a top-two outfit. Not hopeful challengers. Not fringe play-off participants. Promotion-calibre.
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